Heart pain pain

Finally, turn on my charting software 2 days ago after a hectic week in Taipei and oh gosh... I have missed close to 25 strong signal from my setup to short last week!!! And i guess most of you who trade would know i have missed out on what could have been a great run :(

Notable includes Straits Asia, Noble, Olam, ST Eng and more and more... These are 20% move.. What a painful lesson this is, i promise i will scan every trading days from now on especially when i am not in the mood which is usually when i missed out on great trade (murphy's law??)

Anyway, i have decided not to look at the past with sorrow and look forward positively. Enter 2 short positions today which retrospectively is kindof forcing the issue as they are already in the downswing when i pull the trigger and the risk reward ratio is kindof low. So let's see how it turns out...

1) YZJ

2) Wingtai

Quick thoughts to share

Currently in Taipei for project with no mood nor time to analyse the market.. Just wanna share a quick one with you guys my thought with the recent rally..

"Patience is a virtue because it's much wiser to miss out on the best if it helps you avoid the worst..."

Looking at the current market... Using another quote from some old wise man..

"If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, chances are it's a duck."

Happy trading :)

Important couple of days going forward

Just did a scan of the end of day (EOD) of today charts. As expected the resistance level of many counters works like magic and most of them retreat around their resistence points. Now the next couple of days will be fairly important in determining the short term market direction. If it can

1) make higher low = short term bull
2) retreat from resistence and close below 8 EMA = short term bear

As a swing trader, i will go with the trend which is down.. I have identify a couple of counters which are favorable shorts from a risk reward prespective.. Here goes..

1) starhub
2) straitasia
3) wilmar
4) SIA
5) Sembcorp
6) DBS
7) Noble

Remember.. Set your stops with enough width to cater for the volatility to prevent false shake out which also means proper position sizing must be consider b4 you pull the trigger... LAI LAHHHH

Singtel?

Time to give Singtel a kick down?? :P

StarHub as well?? Well, has a higher risk as it is showing signs of going sideway with rsi trading above the 60 range as well as low vol on the pullback.

Olam looks yummy as well @ 1.15 range to gun down

5 seconds

Was up late last night catching F1 final race and boy what a race it is.. My heart goes to Massa who totally deserved the championship this year.. But guess life is fair and unfair in certain ways.. Well some might feel the winner is Lewis who totally deserved it last year.. The sight of joy turning to tears of sorrow in a matter of a 5 seconds swing disturbed me.. Somehow that swing tells us the power above acts in a strange way...

Back to stocks.. 5 mins and not 5 seconds in this volatile market can makes a difference btw a winner or a loser for intraday trade.. This rally is really kicking.. Noble grp broke 1.08 and move up higher b4 pulling back and closing at 1.08.. If it broke and closed above that tomorrow, we could be looking at it moving to the next resistence which will be around 1.30.. Hmmm.. Should i go for a quick intraday trade?? :P Finger getting itchy to pull the trigger..

"God gave rock and roll to you, gave rock and roll to you. Put it in the soul of everyone" - Kiss :*

Chart of the day - Noble Group

Manage to find another CFD provider which still allows shorting of SG counters :)

Did a quick scan for the day and found a very attractive counter which i will be eyeing very closely the next couple of days.

Noble group - Has more or less double within 3 days from its low of $0.46. It should be approaching headwind soon with the first line @ $0.92 and a strong second line @$1.06 - $1.08.

Awesome farewell!!

Come across this interesting article about this cool dude Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, who burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866% betting on the subprime collapse. He decided to retire at the age of 37 and wrote a interesting "farewell" letter (via FT Alphaville and Portfolio.com).

Here goes....

Dear Investor:

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.....


For more of the article, do click on the either of this links FT Alphaville and Portfolio.com... All i can say... What a COOL DUDE :)

Strong 2 days gain!!

Finally, the long overdue bear relief rally come upon us... STI had a strong 2 day rally with a swing of 250+ from intraday low of 1473 pts... Well i am basically position free... So do i turn long and participate in the rally??

Definitely not.. I will still be short biased and be looking to short the index (since i can't short SG counters with my CFD provider still freezing shorting) should the rally reverse from resistences pt. Going forward, should this really be a bottom. I am looking at a sideway market at best for a long period of time with no sign of any catalyst for a strong sustainable reversal.

I have also gotta questions from friends when will i go long?? Well, a couple of simple criterias which as simple as it sounds are very reliable:

1) Higher low for short term trade
2) Triple crossover of the 8, 21, 55 MA is less prone giving false signal
3) Prices moving above the 200 MA is a simple but pretty strong and reliable signal

Well then the next question is won't i miss catching the bottom and a big clunk of the upmove. The fact that i am a swing trender means i am trading with the trend and will not trade against it. I used to be pissed when i miss catching the bottom and asking the "What-If??" question.. But after these couple of years in searching for the holy grail from methods as simple as divergence to indicators like deMark indicators (which should fares pretty badly this period)... I have to say Nah, i pass on that. It should be profitable enough to ride on the 2nd wave :)

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - Warren Buffett

How tempting it is to follow this quote in such times, but it will totally be going against my trading rules.. Am i being too stubborn?? Well Mr Buffett is an investor while Uncle with his limited resources can only be a trader... :P

Bad day at work/stocks

Not only had a bad day at work with the amount of work piling up but also got an email from the CFD vendor i am using that they have freeze shorting for all SG counters until further notice... Tiannn AHHHHHH... Now can foresee counters falling but the only thing i can do is suck thumb...

Guess the alternative now is to either move into trading put warrants (which i don't know) or just purely shorting indexes (HSI).. Hmmm.. Guess have to change my strategy to focus on HSI..

"What does not destroy me, makes me stronger - Friedrich Nietzsche"

Back to work!!

Yeah, it is back to chart reading after a good weekend lazing at home.. A couple of counters turn up from my scan which is worth a look or two tmr..

HKLand$ - The 61.8% fib retracement works it magic and the short lived rally stop and reverse after failing to clear 2.91 successfully. Look for it to drift lower the next couple of days and "lau" should the boardbased market continue its "LS"

SGX - This is a coutner that i always have respect for and try to avoid shorting.. However, the price action of this counter is getting tough to resist.. Will be looking to give it a shot or 2 if the price is fair tmr :)

Interesting Dinner

Attended a great pre wedding dinner @ Da Paolo hosted by my buddy of 20++ years.. How times fly.. Am looking forward to his wedding :)

Also had a very interesting conversation with another 15++ years buddy who share with me his adventures this couple of months.. His bottom fishing of AIG which resulted to a triple bagger and his near miss of becoming a millionaire overnight after missing out on Wachavia major LS due to his date with "Zhou Gong"... A tempting thought ran through my head on whether i should try to do something similar, afterall such oppt don't come once a century!!

..... P486 processing .....

Well.. Guess i should stick to my gameplan and not divulge from it. Bottom fishing is not my game.. Afterall, everyone has a different way of profiting from the market depending on their personality, mentality and tolerance for risk.. You can't win every round :)

Back to Swinging.. The market continue its leg down amid a faster pace than anticipated! It gap down on opening which doesn't gives me the chance to add on to any short position.. Volatility is high as well.. Position sizing must be right to prevent being shake out.. But with volatility comes oppt.. Guess have to track closely intraday for an oppt to enter..

Market resume leg down

As anticipated, it is a bear rally afterall and how short it is!! The timespan of the rally caught me by surprise though and i missed out on a couple of great trade :(

Well guess we can't win them all... Enough what-if and back to stock picking...

Capmall - Is looking ready for the next leg down with the 61.8% point acting as the resistance successfully. Will be looking at pulling my trigger tmr if a reasonable entry point comes.


SGX - Looks ripe for the picking with the resumption of the downtrend


CDL - Looking yummy don't you agree??

Interesting day in the market

What a interesting day to start my blog! STI open with a big gap up and surged intraday 140pts++ but close with a more moderate close of 60pts++.

The temptation to chase the rally is always there but i have got fool (wallet burned) by such rally more than enough times during the short but eventful 3 years of trading to know better to do that. Being a swing trader, i should be trading with the trend and not against the trend which is still DOWN DOWN DOWN even with the BIG rally this couple of days. After a scan of the indexes and counters, the oppt to throw in a couple of trades appear in which the risk-reward is attractive enough proposition.

Capland has shown horrible weakness during this huge downturn and the manner it closed today together with its inability to clear the resistance of 3.25 doesn't bore well for the counter. Furthermore, it has move to my trigger point as highlighted.

Mand Ori is at an interesting point. With the past couple of days upmove, it has broke the 61.8% fib retracement and an attractive level to short at is at the 50% point of around 1.42.